China’s decision to apply a tariff of 55% on beef imports exceeding established quotas This represents a significant challenge for Brazil, the world’s largest beef exporter and the main supplier to the Chinese market.
In recent years, trade relations between Brazil and China have become increasingly close. Beijing now accounts for over 40% of Brazilian beef exports, becoming the sector’s largest customer. This means that any change in Chinese trade policies has immediate repercussions on the entire Brazilian supply chain, from farmers to slaughterhouses, exporters to ports.
An addiction built over the last ten years
Since 2015, Brazil has progressively increased its presence on the Chinese market, favored by several factors:
- the expansion of the Chinese middle class;
- African swine fever, which has drastically reduced China’s pig herd and increased beef consumption;
- the high competitiveness of the Brazilian product;
- the exchange rate favorable to exports.
In 2025 Brazil exported over 2.8 million tons of beef, with China as its main destination. Sales to Beijing have generated billions of dollars in revenue and represent a cornerstone of Brazilian agribusiness.
The Brazilian states most involved
Any reduction in Chinese demand would hit especially hard those countries that concentrate production for export.
Mato Grosso
It is the largest domestic beef producer, raising approximately 35 million head. A significant portion of the meat processed in its plants is exported to China.
A slowdown in purchases would lead to:
- reduction in prices paid to farmers;
- reduction of slaughterhouse margins;
- possible slowdown in investments in the sector.
Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul
These countries also rely heavily on exports. Many companies have invested in recent years to obtain the health certification required by China. A decline in exports would make it more difficult to recoup these investments.
Sao Paulo
While not the largest producer of cattle, it hosts numerous slaughterhouses and processing plants for export. A reduction in orders would impact the entire industrial supply chain.
Pará and Rondônia
In recent years, they have seen strong growth in exports to China. This new scenario could slow the expansion of the livestock sector in the Amazon region.
The big Brazilian companies
The main exporting companies are:
- JBS;
- Marfrig;
- Minerva Foods.
These companies have an international presence that allows them to redistribute part of their production to other markets.
However, China represents the most profitable market for many cuts of meat. Losing even a portion of demand would mean having to place large quantities of product on alternative markets, often with lower prices.
Possible reduction in domestic prices
If a significant portion of the meat initially destined for China were to remain on the domestic market, Brazil could see a decrease in wholesale prices.
For consumers, this could translate into a temporary reduction in the price of meat in supermarkets.
For breeders, however, it would mean:
- lower revenues;
- reduction in profitability;
- postponement of investments in genetics, nutrition and livestock expansion.
Search for new markets
The Brazilian government and exporters’ associations have been working for some time to diversify destination markets.
Among those considered strategic are:
- Indonesia;
- Vietnam;
- Philippines;
- Malaysia;
- United Arab Emirates;
- Saudi Arabia;
- Egypt;
- Mexico.
However, none of these countries, at least in the short term, is able to replace the volume of purchases guaranteed by China.
Effects on the exchange rate and the trade balance
Beef is one of the main items of Brazilian agri-food exports.
A decrease in exports to China could lead to:
- a reduction in foreign currency inflows;
- a decrease in the trade surplus;
- increased volatility of the Brazilian real, especially if accompanied by a decline in soybean and iron ore exports.
Agribusiness represents over 20% of Brazil’s GDP and continues to be one of the main generators of foreign exchange.
Brazil’s possible strategies
To limit the effects of the new trade scenario, Brazil could adopt several strategies:
- accelerate the opening of new international markets;
- negotiate directly with the Chinese authorities any exemptions or preferential quotas;
- increase the added value of exports by focusing on premium meat and processed products;
- Strengthen the traceability and sustainability of production, elements increasingly requested by international importers.
A challenge for the entire agribusiness
The potential application of the 55% tariff is a wake-up call for the Brazilian livestock sector. Over the past ten years, the success of exports to China has fueled investment, farm expansion, and increased production capacity. This heavy concentration on a single market, however, has also increased the vulnerability of the entire supply chain.
Brazil has competitive advantages that are difficult to replicate: the world’s largest commercial cattle herd, abundant pasture, relatively low production costs, and a robust processing industry. However, its dependence on Chinese demand highlights the need for greater trade diversification.
The challenge in the coming years will therefore be to maintain world leadership in beef exports while reducing the risk deriving from excessive exposure to a single market, however important it may be.